Ambit

Expected real return

Expected real return is the compounding assumption.

Expected real return is the annual growth rate after inflation that Undefeated applies to invested assets.

Simple model contextNot financial adviceUses the calculator assumptions

Why this matters

The assumption changes the projection.

Compounding is one of the strongest forces in the projection. Small differences in real return can become large differences over long time horizons because each year builds on the previous year’s portfolio value.

Year effect

The year moves when the model input moves.

A higher real return grows the projected portfolio faster and can move the financial independence year earlier in the model. A lower real return slows growth and can move the year later.

Model assumption

The calculator keeps the assumption deliberately simple.

Undefeated applies one annual after-inflation return to the projection. It does not model market cycles, sequence-of-returns risk, tax drag, platform fees, or changes to asset allocation over time.

Model limits

The real world may not match the model input.

Actual returns differ from the assumed rate, inflation differs from expectation, costs are higher than reflected in the input, or the portfolio does not behave like the return assumption implies.

Checks

Checks before using the result.

These are context checks for the assumption, not recommendations.

  • Confirm the input is a real return, not a headline nominal return.
  • Check whether fees, taxes, and cash drag are already reflected in the rate.
  • Check whether the assumed return matches the kind of assets being modelled.

Related assumptions

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